Even full investment subsidy cannot stimulate investment immediately.Both electricity tariff subsidy and CO2 utilization subsidy are feasible.Electricity tariff subsidy is higher than the current subsidy for renewable energy.CO2 utilization subsidy is more favorable for developing full-chain CCUS project.02摘要本研究運(yùn)用實(shí)物期權(quán)模型，探討了高、中、低煤炭?jī)r(jià)格水平下，初始投資補(bǔ)貼、電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼、CO2利用補(bǔ)貼等不同補(bǔ)貼機(jī)制，對(duì)中國(guó)碳捕集利用與封存(CCUS)項(xiàng)目投資收益的影響。研究結(jié)果表明：（1）在當(dāng)前油價(jià)水平下（70美元/桶），美國(guó)政府實(shí)施的45Q法案對(duì)CO2利用補(bǔ)貼（CO2-Enhanced Oil Recovery）的方式是可以應(yīng)用到中國(guó)的，并且能夠即刻激發(fā)投資行為。然而，全額初始投資補(bǔ)貼還需要通過(guò)其他方式予以輔助，電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼需要比目前可再生能源補(bǔ)貼的水平（0.019元/千瓦時(shí)）至少提高2.6倍。（2）全額投資補(bǔ)貼和電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼下的臨界油價(jià)至少需要比現(xiàn)有油價(jià)高出2.7%和14.1%。（3）現(xiàn)階段，電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼和CO2利用補(bǔ)貼都是可行的，但電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼需要超過(guò)目前可再生能源的補(bǔ)貼水平；相比之下，CO2利用補(bǔ)貼更有利于推動(dòng)全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈CCUS項(xiàng)目的發(fā)展，并且有助于提高石油產(chǎn)量。（4）在低煤價(jià)水平下，當(dāng)技術(shù)學(xué)習(xí)率達(dá)到30%時(shí)，最佳投資時(shí)機(jī)可提前至2023年；在中高煤價(jià)水平下，技術(shù)學(xué)習(xí)率未達(dá)到5%和10%之前，投資者應(yīng)放棄投資。本文研究結(jié)果能為政府制定CCUS補(bǔ)貼政策提供參考。A carbon tax is a tax levied on the carbon content of fuels (transport & energy sector) and, like carbon emissions trading, is a form of carbon pricing. The term carbon tax is also used to refer to a carbon dioxide equivalent tax, the latter of which is quite similar but can be placed on any type of greenhouse gas or combination of greenhouse gases, emitted by any economic sector. (from Wikepedia)

03AbstractThis study adopts the real option approach to compare the impacts of different subsidy schemes, including initial investment subsidy, electricity tariff subsidy, and CO2 utilization subsidy, on the investment benefit of carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) project in China under high, medium, and low coal price levels, respectively. The results show that: (1) Under the current oil price level (70?USD/bbl), CO2 utilization subsidy referring to the 45Q Tax Credit released by the US government is high enough to trigger the investment behavior immediately. However, the full initial investment subsidy needs to be replenished with other ways and the electricity tariff subsidy needs to increase by 2.6 times compared with the current subsidy for renewable energy (0.019?CNY/kWh). (2) The critical oil prices under full investment subsidy and electricity tariff subsidy need to increase by at least 2.7% and 14.1%, respectively. (3) Both electricity tariff subsidy and CO2 utilization subsidy are feasible, while the former need to exceed the current subsidy for renewable energy and the latter is more favorable in promoting the development of full-chain CCUS project and the increase of oil production. (4) The optimal investment timing can be brought forward to 2023 if the technological learning rate reaches 30% under the low coal price level; the investors should abandon the project until the technological learning rates reach 5% and 10% under the medium and high coal price levels, respectively. Overall, our results enable to provide useful information for the policy-makers to formulate subsidy policies.

Keywords：CCUSInitial investment subsidyElectricity tariff subsidyCO2 utilization subsidyReal option

Fig. 1. The vertically integrated business model and corresponding government subsidies for CCUS project.